Buying · Faisalabad, Lahore, Punjab
Solar Energy Cost and Payback in Pakistan: How to Estimate It (Without Hype)
Short answer
Solar payback is the system cost divided by the money it saves you each year. To estimate it honestly you need three numbers: the real installed price, the units the system will produce, and how many of those units you use yourself versus export under net billing. Nobody can promise you a payback period, because tariffs, weather, usage and the export rate all change. You can still work out a sensible range yourself.
This guide gives you the method, step by step. Every number in the examples is a round illustrative figure to show the arithmetic. None of them is a forecast for your home or factory.
Why "2-year payback" claims are not useful
You will see adverts promising payback in a fixed number of years. Treat them with caution. Payback depends on:
- What you pay per unit today, which depends on your tariff and slab (see how to read your electricity bill)
- How much the system actually produces on your roof, in your city, with your dust and shading
- Whether you use the solar units yourself or export them
- Whether you add a battery
- Future tariff changes, which nobody can predict
Under the old net metering arrangement, an exported unit cancelled an imported unit one for one, so the maths was simpler. Under net billing, used and exported units have very different values. Read the net metering and net billing guide for the rules.
What drives payback
Self-use
Each unit used saves the full tariff
Export
Credited at about Rs 10–11, as low as Rs 8
Step 1: Get the real installed cost
Use a complete, itemised quotation, not a headline price per kW. It should include panels, inverter, structure, cables, protection, earthing, installation and, if you want one, a battery. See solar system price in Pakistan for current prices by size: WhatsApp for today's rate. Our quotation checklist shows what a full BOQ should list.
For the examples below we use Rs 1,000,000 as an illustrative system cost. It is a round number for arithmetic, not a price.
Step 2: Estimate yearly production
A rough method:
Yearly units ≈ system size (kW) × useful sun hours per day × 365
Example arithmetic only: a 10 kW system × 4.5 useful sun hours × 365 ≈ 16,400 units a year.
Real production in Punjab varies with season, heat, dust, winter fog and smog, panel angle and shading. Use a conservative sun-hours figure. A designer can give you a site-specific estimate, but it is still an estimate.
Step 3: Split self-use from export
This is the step most people skip, and under net billing it matters most.
- Self-used units replace grid units you would otherwise buy. Each one is worth roughly your full tariff per unit.
- Exported units are credited at the net-billing export rate, reported at about Rs 10-11 per unit when the rules were notified in February 2026.
Look at when you use electricity. Homes with ACs and pumps running at midday, offices, schools and most factories use a large share of solar directly. Homes that are empty during the day and use most power at night export more.
Example arithmetic only: suppose 70% of the 16,400 units are used on site and 30% are exported.
- Self-used: 11,480 units
- Exported: 4,920 units
Step 4: Put a rupee value on each
Example arithmetic only, with illustrative rates:
| Units | Illustrative value per unit | Yearly value | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Self-used | 11,480 | Rs 50 (your effective tariff) | Rs 574,000 |
| Exported | 4,920 | Rs 10 (export rate) | Rs 49,200 |
| Total | 16,400 | Rs 623,200 |
Use your own effective tariff: the energy part of your bill divided by the units, including adjustments and taxes that scale with units. Do not include fixed charges, because solar does not remove them.
Step 5: Subtract running costs
Allow something each year for cleaning, occasional service visits and, eventually, inverter repair or replacement. Solar Works Pakistan includes a 1-year service warranty under applicable project terms; after the first year, maintenance and service are chargeable.
Example arithmetic only: set aside Rs 20,000 a year. Net yearly value ≈ Rs 603,200.
Step 6: Simple payback
Simple payback (years) = system cost ÷ net yearly value
Example arithmetic only: Rs 1,000,000 ÷ Rs 603,200 ≈ 1.7 years.
Do not read that as a promise. It is what these made-up inputs give. Change any of them and the answer moves:
| Change (illustrative) | Effect on yearly value | Simple payback |
|---|---|---|
| Self-use falls from 70% to 40% | Rs 623,200 → about Rs 426,000 | about 2.5 years |
| Tariff Rs 50 → Rs 35 | Rs 623,200 → about Rs 451,000 | about 2.3 years |
| Sun hours 4.5 → 4.0 | about 11% less | about 1.9 years |
All figures illustrative. Running-cost allowance kept at Rs 20,000.
The lesson: self-use and your real tariff matter more than anything else. A system sized mostly for export pays back far more slowly under net billing.
The battery effect
A battery stores midday surplus and lets you use it in the evening, so a unit that would have been exported at the low export rate is used at your full tariff instead.
Example arithmetic only: if a battery shifts 3,000 units a year from export to self-use, each unit gains about Rs 50 − Rs 10 = Rs 40, or Rs 120,000 a year. Divide the battery's cost by that figure to estimate its own payback. Real usable capacity, round-trip losses and battery ageing will reduce this, so use conservative numbers.
A battery also gives backup during load-shedding, which has value you cannot put into this sum. See lithium battery prices and our battery sizing guide.
Cost per unit of solar electricity
Another way to judge solar energy cost is the cost per unit over the system's life.
Example arithmetic only: Rs 1,000,000 plus Rs 20,000 a year of running costs over 20 years is Rs 1,400,000. If the system produces about 16,400 units a year, slightly less each year as panels age, say 300,000 units in total, that is about Rs 4.7 per unit.
Compare that figure with what you pay the grid. Panel ageing and inverter life are covered in how long solar panels last. Manufacturer warranties apply per product and are.
For factories and commercial sites
Industrial users usually consume most solar on site, which improves the self-use share. But fixed and MDI-based charges are a big part of their bills, and solar does not always reduce them. A proper study looks at the load profile hour by hour, generator fuel, and whether a battery can shave peaks. See industrial and commercial solar.
How Solar Works Pakistan approaches it
We do not quote payback as a promise. We do the load analysis in-house from your 12 months of bills, design around self-use under the current net billing rules, and show you the assumptions behind any estimate so you can change them. Our solar calculator gives a starting point.
Get today's price or a free site survey
- WhatsApp or call: 0336 666 4321
- Email: info@solarworks.pk
- Head office: Main Boulevard, Sargodha Rd, Block F FDA City, Faisalabad
- Lahore branch: 2nd Floor, Jeff Heights, Gulberg, Lahore
- Hours: 9:00 AM to 6:00 PM, daily
- Service area: all of Punjab. See our Faisalabad and Lahore pages, or contact us.
Site surveys are normally free. Solar Works Pakistan was founded in 2021 and has served 300+ customers, including 50+ industrial clients.
Frequently asked questions
What is the payback period of solar in Pakistan?
There is no single answer. It depends on your system cost, your tariff, production on your roof, and how much solar you use yourself versus export. Use the method above with your own numbers and conservative assumptions.
Is solar still worth it under net billing?
It can be, if the system is sized for self-use. Units you use yourself are worth your full tariff, while exported units earn only the export rate. Systems sized mostly for export pay back more slowly.
Does a battery make payback faster or slower?
It depends on how many units it moves from export to self-use and on the battery's price. A battery adds cost but raises the value of stored units and gives backup. Work out its payback separately.
What is the cost per unit of solar electricity?
Divide the total lifetime cost (system plus running costs) by the total units the system is expected to produce. With conservative inputs, the figure is usually well below grid tariffs, but calculate it with your own quote.
Should I include fixed charges in my savings calculation?
No. Fixed charges stay on your bill with or without solar. Only the unit-based part of the bill, including adjustments and taxes that scale with units, should be counted.
Can Solar Works guarantee my savings?
No. No honest installer can guarantee savings, because tariffs, weather and usage change. We show you the assumptions behind any estimate so you can judge them yourself.
Sources
- NEPRA (Prosumer) Regulations, 2026, SRO 251(I)/2026 (copy hosted by K-Electric)
- Dawn, "Nepra pulls the plug on net-metering" (10 Feb 2026)