Should You Buy Solar Now or Wait for Prices to Fall?

Our guide to why solar prices change explains the dollar, tax and stock drivers in detail. This page is about the decision itself: how to weigh the cost of waiting against what you might save.

The real question: what does waiting cost you?

Most people compare today's price with a hoped-for lower price. That leaves out the bills you keep paying while you wait.

Example arithmetic only, with round illustrative numbers. Suppose:

• A properly sized system would cost Rs 1,000,000 (an illustrative figure, not a price).
• It would reduce your bill by about Rs 30,000 a month on average across the year.

All figures illustrative. Use your own bill and a real quote.

A 9% fall in three months, or 18% in six, would be unusual for a complete system, because panels are only part of the cost. Inverters, batteries, structure, cables, protection and labour do not all fall together. And prices can just as easily rise.

To run this test on your own numbers, work out your likely monthly saving with our solar calculator and the self-use method in is solar worth it in 2026.

Diagram

Buy now or wait

Now

Savings start this month

Wait

Prices may move either way

What is pushing solar prices in 2026

The big fall in panel prices happened in 2023 and 2024, when oversupply from China drove prices down. In 2026 the signals have been different:

• China removed its export tax rebate on solar modules and cells from 1 April 2026. The rebate had been 9%, and analysts expected much of that to be passed on to overseas buyers. The battery rebate was cut from 9% to 6% on the same date and is due to end on 1 January 2027.
• Raw material costs rose. Early 2026 reports pointed to higher polysilicon prices and record silver prices, both of which feed into panel costs.
• Local prices jumped before the June budget on rumours of a sales tax rise. The budget reportedly kept the tax on panels unchanged, so prices had to settle again. See why solar prices change for the detail.

None of this means prices can only go up. Global factory prices can fall again, and the dollar can strengthen. The point is that nobody, including us, can tell you prices will be lower in six months.

"But better technology is coming"

This is a fair question, and the answer depends on the part.

• Panels. Panel efficiency improves every year, but slowly. A panel bought today will still produce for decades. Newer panels give more watts per square metre, which matters mainly if your roof is small. Compare offers per watt with our price per watt guide.
• Batteries. Sodium-ion and other chemistries are developing, but LiFePO4 lithium is the proven choice for solar today. Our sodium-ion battery guide covers whether it is worth waiting for.
• Inverters. Models change often, but a good hybrid inverter from an established brand does the job you need now.

A sensible way around the technology question is to phase it: install the panels and a hybrid inverter now, and add or expand the battery later when you need it. Read adding batteries or panels to an existing system and replacing or expanding a battery before you plan a phased system, so the first stage is designed to accept the second.

"What if the rules change again?"

The move from net metering to net billing in February 2026 is the change many people were waiting on, and it went against exporters, not in their favour. Waiting for rules to improve is a bet in the dark. Rules could also tighten further.

The safer approach is to design a system that works on today's rules: size for self-use, so most of the value comes from units you use yourself at your full tariff rather than from exports. Our guides to net metering and net billing and sizing under net billing explain how.

When waiting does make sense

There are good reasons to delay. They are practical, not market bets.

1. Your roof needs repair or waterproofing first. Fix it before the structure goes on. See roof leaks and waterproofing.
2. You are moving house soon. Shifting a system costs money and time; see moving house with solar.
3. You are increasing your sanctioned load or changing to three-phase. Under net billing, capacity cannot exceed your sanctioned load, so sort the connection first. See how to increase your sanctioned load.
4. You are building or extending. Plan the roof layout, cable routes and inverter space once the structure is final.
5. A budget announcement is days away. Prices often jump on rumours before a budget. Waiting a few weeks for the actual decision can be sensible.
6. You cannot yet afford a properly sized system. Buying a cheaper, undersized or poorly specified system to "get in now" is worse than waiting a few months to do it right.

When waiting usually does not make sense

• You already know your load, your roof is ready, and your bills are high.
• Summer is coming and you want the system before the heat. Demand rises before summer, and so do installation queues.
• You are waiting only because someone said prices "will fall soon".

How to buy well if you decide now

• Get a detailed, itemised quote with brand, model and quantity for each item, and compare like with like. Use our quotation checklist.
• Decide between a package and an engineered system with our guide to complete package vs separate components.
• Check the validity date on the quote, because prices follow the dollar and stock.
• Check current market rates on our solar panel price and solar system price pages.

Get today's price or a free site survey

The quickest way to settle "now or wait" is to see today's quote for a system sized to your bills.

• WhatsApp or call: 0336 666 4321
• Email: info@solarworks.pk
• Head office: Main Boulevard, Sargodha Rd, Block F FDA City, Faisalabad
• Lahore branch: 2nd Floor, Jeff Heights, Gulberg, Lahore
• Hours: 9:00 AM to 6:00 PM, daily

We serve customers throughout Punjab, with 300+ customers served since 2021. Site surveys are normally free. You can also reach us through the contact page.

Frequently asked questions

Will solar panel prices go down in Pakistan?

Nobody can say reliably. In 2026, China's removal of its module export rebate and higher raw material costs pushed against price falls, while the dollar and global supply can move either way. Plan on today's price rather than a forecast.

How much do I lose by waiting to buy solar?

Roughly the monthly saving you would have made, multiplied by the months you wait. For example, a household that would save Rs 30,000 a month gives up about Rs 180,000 in six months, which a price fall would need to beat.

Should I wait for better solar panels?

Usually not. Panel efficiency improves slowly, and today's panels will produce for decades. Newer panels matter most when roof space is tight.

Should I wait for sodium-ion batteries?

For most homes, no. LiFePO4 lithium is the proven option now. If you are unsure, install the panels and hybrid inverter now and add the battery later.

Is it better to buy solar before or after the budget?

If the budget is only days away, waiting for the official decision can avoid paying rumour-driven prices. Beyond that, budgets are only one of several things that move prices.

Can I buy part of the system now and the rest later?

Yes, if the first stage is designed for it. A hybrid inverter and panels now, with the battery later, is a common phased approach.

Sources

1. TaiyangNews, "China to remove solar export tax rebates from April 1, 2026"
2. ProPakistani, "Solar panel and battery prices are about to increase massively, here's why" (28 Jan 2026)
3. Nukta, "Solar panel prices surge in Pakistan" (10 Jun 2026)
4. The Express Tribune, "Solar prices drop up to 25%" (12 May 2024)
5. ProPakistani, "Pakistan's solar boom reaches 7,000 MW as govt moves to replace net metering" (17 Jul 2026)